Dutch investors double exposure to tech in five years; DNB warns of 'abrupt correction'

Dutch pension funds, insurers and investment institutions have doubled their equity investments in technology companies over the past five years, with invested capital amounting to €200bn, according to analysis by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB).

DNB said a significant portion, €95bn, is invested in American technology giants, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla – the seven largest American technology companies known as the ‘magnificent seven’.

The companies represent “enormous market capitalisation”, DNB said, as they represent 24 per cent of the value in the MSCI World Index.

The analysis found that part of the increased exposure is due to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).

For pension funds specifically, DNB found that at the end of July 2025, they had invested more than €150bn in the shares of tech companies. This represents almost 43 per cent of their portfolio of listed shares and 8 per cent of their total balance sheet.

“Compared to January 2020, this represents an increase of almost 50 per cent. The weight of the seven large American tech companies in their share portfolio has risen even more sharply in recent years: from 7 per cent in January 2020 to 19 per cent in July 2025. However, there are significant differences between pension funds,” DNB said.

DNB warned that this exposure makes them vulnerable to price fluctuations, especially as warnings about the high valuation of technology shares are becoming increasingly frequent.

“Tech shares are known for their high returns and volatility compared to shares in other sectors. The share prices of technology companies fluctuate more than most other shares. At the same time, tech company share prices are rising more strongly on average,” the regulator warned.

It said this is largely driven by the rapid growth of the magnificent seven. Despite a sharp decline at the start of 2025, American tech share prices have risen more strongly than the broad share index since then – American tech shares rose by 20 per cent, while the broad stock market rose by 16 per cent.

DNB warned of an “abrupt correction” and said there is widespread concern from regulators that companies are investing too much in AI

“In addition, there are concerns about the growing financial interdependence in the AI ecosystem, which means that problems at one company can easily spread to others,” DNB added.

In response to the warning, Dutch Federation of Pension Funds (Pensioenfederatie) chairman, Ger Jaarsma, said pension funds “always seek to strike the optimal balance between a good return and an acceptable level of risk”.

“That is also why pension funds spread their investments. Moreover, they take a long-term view, looking ahead 10, 20 or even 30 years. Funds also invest the contributions paid in globally and across the entire spectrum of the economy. In addition to shares, they also invest in loans to governments and companies, infrastructure such as roads and wind energy, as well as shopping centres and housing."

“Because investments are made in the long term, across the entire economy and worldwide, any fluctuations do not directly determine the pension outcome. Naturally, pension funds closely monitor developments in the financial markets. This requires constant vigilance. Reports and analyses such as those from DNB are also taken into account. Adjustments are made where necessary, always with a view to achieving good, long-term returns and pensions for workers and pensioners.”



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