Danish pension provider Sampension has reported a 10 per cent return for a typical customer with 15 years to retirement and a moderate risk profile in the first half of 2026, its highest return since 2021, when it stood at 12.1 per cent in the same period.

Commenting on the results, Sampension CEO, Mads Smith Hansen, said that, as was the case in 2025, the first six months of 2026 have also been characterised by “significant global turmoil, where not least the conflict in the Middle East and the rising energy prices in this connection have influenced the agenda, including the financial markets”.

Despite this, he highlighted that the first half of the year has offered “excellent returns for pension savers – in fact, the highest in five years – and that is, of course, something to be pleased about”.

Smith Hansen credited the good return primarily to the strong tailwinds in equity markets in the first half of the year, which he suggested were mainly due to companies delivering surprisingly positive earnings growth.

“At the same time, it is also worth noting that none of the major asset classes has made a negative contribution to the overall return this year," he said.

"It is also remarkable that this year we have experienced a bit of a déjà vu. Because just like last year, when a sharp fall in the markets in the wake of Trump's ‘Liberation Day’ was quickly followed by solid gains, this year too we have also seen the trend in pension returns shift in a positive direction within a short space of time; from negative in March – as a result of the Iran war – to positive in April.”

Smith Hansen suggested that this is further proof that the market trend can quickly shift in the right direction again, and, given this, it is important to take a long-term view of pension savings.

As evidence of this, Sampension pointed out that the return for a Sampension customer with 15 years until retirement and a moderate risk profile stood at -1.5 per cent in March, whilst by April it had risen to 5 per cent.

"Of course, it is impossible to predict what the pension return will be when the figures for the whole of 2026 are finalised," Smith Hansen continued. "For now, we expect the return in the second half of the year to be slightly positive, which will therefore add to the year’s total return."

However, he stressed that it was important to be cautious with expectations due to the global climate.

“But even though there is now, hopefully, the prospect of a solution to the conflict in the Middle East, we should probably brace ourselves for the possibility that we may also experience periods of global turmoil and market volatility in the second half of the year. After all, this has unfortunately been more the rule than the exception in recent years – and particularly with Trump in the White House," he concluded.

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