16/01/2012
By Ilonka Oudenampsen
No country will leave the eurozone this year and a fiscal union will be established within the next ten years, according to the majority of investment professionals responding to Aviva Investors’ latest survey.
Conducted among 188 fund managers across the globe, the survey found that 41% of managers expect some countries to exit the eurozone within the next ten years, but only 23% believes this will happen this year. The other 36% either do not agree, believe there will be joiners as well as leavers, or simply don’t know.
In addition, 52% are optimistic about the future of the eurozone and expect a fiscal union to be established within the next decade, although 41% do not think the ECB or politicians will take sufficient action to restore confidence in the eurozone before the end of this year.
Nick Mansley, global director of multi manager at Aviva Investors, said: “This is our first formal survey of external fund managers covering all major asset classes across the globe. Broadly speaking, there is no consensus amongst them about what might happen with the euro. While we continue to assess the ability of our fund managers to cope with the ramifications of a euro break-up, the results suggest that on a decade-view, the majority are more optimistic and expect a fiscal union to be established that may provide a stronger basis for the euro.”
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